Uncertainties around tariffs are reshaping trade flows in the global container shipping industry, forcing container logistics players to rethink sourcing strategies and market access. Container xChange, a digital partner of The Cooperative Logistics Network, recently conducted a survey (January 2025) revealing that 81% of container logistics businesses are actively building new partnerships beyond traditional trade routes. However, 78% of respondents struggle to establish reliable partnerships due to increasing geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions.
These findings come at a time when the Trump administration has imposed fresh tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, leading to retaliatory measures that further disrupt global supply chains. This report from Container xChange – the largest global container marketplace, delves into the key impacts, challenges, and opportunities emerging from these developments.
Understanding the New Tariffs and Countermeasures in the Container Shipping Industry
The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on all non-energy imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports (mainly crude oil). Chinese imports face an additional 10% tariff, compounding existing duties. However, the United States has paused its planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days.
Retaliatory responses include:
- Canada: $20 billion in tariffs on U.S. goods, with a second round of $85 billion in 25% tariffs set to take effect in three weeks.
- Mexico: Announced retaliatory tariffs (details pending).
- China: Vowed countermeasures via its Ministry of Commerce.
“The trade war is set to intensify in 2025, creating major challenges for global supply chains,” said Christian Roeloffs, co-founder and CEO of Container xChange. “A key consequence will be rising shipping costs and transit times, which will particularly strain smaller container trading and leasing businesses. Strategic partnerships across multiple geographies are now critical for businesses to remain resilient against mounting trade, economic, and demand pressures.”
Shifts in Container Demand: Frontloading & Long-Term Risks
Historically, trade uncertainty has led to frontloading, where importers rush shipments ahead of new tariffs. This trend has sustained demand through H2 2024 and into early 2025.
- Short-term: U.S. importers are expected to frontload cargo until the tariffs are fully enforced.
- Long-term: Demand contraction remains a risk as higher costs curb consumer spending and accelerate supply chain diversification efforts.
Potential EU tariffs in response to U.S. policies could further disrupt East-West container flows, driving European suppliers to explore alternative markets in the container shipping industry.
The Role of Strategic Partnerships in 2025
As President Trump enacts new tariff measures, nations are likely to take preemptive steps to build resilience against economic disruptions. This could lead to the formation of strategic alliances among countries facing common threats from U.S. tariffs.
If nations form alliances to bypass or mitigate U.S. tariffs, container logistics businesses may see shifts in trade routes. Increased regional collaboration could lead to greater reliance on non-U.S. markets, creating new opportunities along emerging trade lanes (e.g., intra-Asia or South-South trade). Businesses will need to adapt quickly to changing trade patterns. Flexibility in container positioning, supply chain networks, and partnerships with local operators will be critical to capturing these shifts.
Container logistics businesses could benefit from partnering with shipping lines, ports, and other stakeholders in allied countries. Such partnerships may offer advantages like cost-sharing, streamlined customs processes, or better access to growing markets.
The average prices for second-hand containers remained strong through H2 2024 and further into early 2025. Currently, average container prices are higher than last year.
Inflated container prices in Asia
- On a month-on-month basis, average container prices have declined marginally across Asia, North America, the Middle East, ISC, and Europe as of 4 February 2025.
- Latin America West and Japan & Korea were the only regions that recorded significant positive changes in average prices for 40ft high-cube cargo-worthy containers.
- Asia recorded a significant 82% year-on-year increase in average container prices in February 2025, with Vietnam seeing prices rise from $1310 in February 2024 to $2390 in February 2025.
“As tariffs and trade tensions push suppliers and manufacturers to reconfigure their supply chains, Asia will continue to rise in importance. We expect container prices in these areas to remain stable, with some markets solidifying their critical role in global trade,” shared Roeloffs.
Container Price Expectations Simmer
Starting in the third week of 2025, xCPSI (Container Price Sentiment Index) deteriorated week by week from 50 points in week 2 to 33 in week 5. The data also suggests heightened volatility, reflecting growing market uncertainty among container logistics market participants.
Market participants expect market correction as supply exceeds demand in 2025
After a period of inflated container prices due to supply chain disruptions and frontloading, the market is entering a phase of correction. Traders recognize that the container market has likely reached its peak and is stabilizing at a more sustainable level.
A key factor in this shift is the anticipated inventory surplus in 2025, with supply set to outpace demand, further influencing market dynamics.
What the Container Shipping Industry can Expect in 2025?
“The tariff war will force U.S. businesses to reconsider sourcing strategies, potentially leading to increased reliance on alternative suppliers in Asia and Europe. More sourcing locations mean longer supply chains, increased lead times, and higher logistics costs,” shared Roeloffs.
Countries with free trade agreements with the U.S. could see higher transshipment volumes as companies route goods indirectly to avoid tariffs. Secondary ports and intermodal logistics (rail/trucking) could see increased demand as sourcing diversifies.
- Reduced trade with certain regions may cause equipment imbalances. Shipping lines may reduce capacity or introduce surcharges to offset rising costs, further risking supply chain stability.
- Higher tariffs will increase consumer prices, putting pressure on businesses to absorb costs or pass them on. Leasing rates and repo dynamics will shift based on emerging trade patterns.
In 2025, players in the container shipping industry must brace for continued volatility fueled by trade wars, shifting demand patterns, and evolving supply chain strategies. Strategic partnerships will be instrumental in mitigating risks, ensuring market access, and maintaining operational resilience. With heightened uncertainty, container traders should prioritize flexibility, diversify sourcing strategies, and stay attuned to policy shifts that could redefine the global logistics landscape.